How long will the high demand for IT specialists last

IT specialists' salaries have been growing for the sixth consecutive year. This is, however, quite natural: to poach candidates from competitors amidst a severe talent shortage, companies resort to their main argument—money. The question arises, how much longer will this golden age for IT professionals last? Let's discuss it.

A Few Figures

Last year's events did not halt the growth of IT salaries: although their level did not rise for the first time in five years during the first half, the median salary increased by 7% (to 150,000 rubles) in the second half, reaching 179,000 rubles by May 2023. The reason for this is a severe labor shortage in the industry. Official sources confirm this: according to the Ministry of Digital Development, there was a deficit of about 1 million IT professionals at the beginning of 2023.

IT market in numbers

• 179,000 ₽ · ↑ 7% YoY · Median IT salary (May 2023)
• ~1M · Ministry of Digital Dev. · IT talent deficit (early 2023)
• 6 years · consecutive · Salary growth streak

Meanwhile, in February, HeadHunter reported data on a decrease in the average IT salary. This stirred the market: has the cost of IT professionals finally started to fall? I'm afraid to disappoint companies that hoped for this, but in reality, salaries continue to grow. The decrease in the average level is due to two reasons. Firstly, a large number of specialists without experience entered the market last year – this is indirectly supported by the record demand for IT courses. Secondly, hh.ru most often searches for entry-level IT specialists: for mid-level and senior professionals, there are more suitable search channels. And it is these specialists who remain a scarce commodity.

The balance of supply and demand in the market is currently roughly the same as a year ago. Yes, some companies left Russia, freeing up labor – but at the same time, many specialists left the country, which balanced the situation. The market has become slightly less strained compared to 2021-early 2022, and inadequate offers like 800,000 rubles for a mid-level developer have disappeared – but competition for highly qualified personnel continues.

Two Markets

Not all IT professionals are equally in demand. The struggle is mainly for scarce mid-level and senior specialists. These are professionals who are rarely out of work, so companies have to poach them from competitors through salaries and more attractive conditions.

Meanwhile, the lion's share of IT professionals are low- or mid-level specialists: juniors, interns, and mid-level minus. They are sought after by agencies and companies that cannot afford high salaries. The salary level here is no higher than in many other industries, and competition is low – because there is currently no shortage of aspiring IT professionals. Quite the opposite: a large number of course graduates without experience have entered the market. Some of them will later gain experience and move into the sought-after category, where there will be a fight for them. And some will remain where they are.

Two IT markets in Russia

• 🔥Premium market · —Mid & Senior specialists · —6–7 figure offers · —Fierce competition for talent · —Large companies (Sber, Yandex, VK)
• 📋Standard market · —Juniors, interns, mid-minus · —Average salaries across industries · —Low competition · —Agencies and small companies

It can be conditionally said that there are two IT markets in Russia: one highly competitive, with six- and seven-figure offers, a battle for specialists, and crazy salary demands – and a second calm one, where all this madness is absent. The first is formed by large companies with big budgets – they are the ones competing for IT talent. There are not many of these players, but each of them posts hundreds and thousands of IT vacancies simultaneously: for example, SBER currently has almost 600 developer vacancies open. And this is only on hh.ru, which does not list all open positions and excludes product managers. Moreover, this number is constantly increasing – much faster than the number of new experienced specialists.

Factors of Change

So, there are no prerequisites for a change in the IT market situation yet – at least not for the next three years. The demand for personnel is growing much faster than the number of new IT specialists, and this can only be satisfied by a large number of skilled professionals entering the market. To some extent, the current boom in IT education may contribute to this. But for modern students to be of any value to the market, they must learn, gain sufficient experience, acquire skills, and master a huge technological stack – and all this takes more than one or two years. It is impossible to complete a three-month online course and immediately become a developer. At least, a developer whom someone would want to hire.

Moreover, the level of IT education itself must be much higher than it is now: for now, it is not coping with the preparation of qualified personnel. Instead of one-day courses, future specialists should be taught by experts. This refers to large corporate universities among market leaders.

Another factor that could alleviate the shortage of experienced IT professionals is related to the outflow of people from the regions to Moscow. We're not talking about a physical outflow, but a labor one, where specialists from the regions start working remotely for large capital companies. This is a beneficial situation not only for job seekers who can earn Moscow salaries, but also for employers: it expands their search geography, and thus, the candidate pool.

Finally, in the more distant future, automation and the development of artificial intelligence may "eat up" some vacancies. But even if this happens, juniors will likely be the ones affected, while the need for strong specialists will only grow. And this will definitely not happen within the next few years.

Factors that could change the market

• Now · IT education boom · Students need years to become valuable
• 1–2 years · Regional remote work · Expands candidate pool for Moscow companies
• 3+ years · AI & automation · May reduce junior roles, increases need for seniors
• 2–3 years · Overall forecast · Talent shortage persists, no major changes expected

Everything as Before

It is very difficult to predict when the talent shortage and salary growth in IT will end. However, it can be said with certainty that the situation will not change in the next 2-3 years, unless some external factors come into play. Skilled specialists will remain scarce, and there will still be far more beginners: not all current juniors will become mid-level and senior professionals - for that, they need to work on large, serious projects, constantly learn, interact with the market, and make their work visible. Not everyone can and wants to do this.

Companies will need to continue investing in the IT recruitment process to increase conversion to hires. For example, by shortening the number of hiring stages and implementing one-day offers so that candidates don't drop out halfway.

Most likely, the demand for different fields will change. For example, if a few years ago banks actively recruited mobile developers, the demand for them has noticeably decreased due to sanctions. Instead, there was a sudden need for a huge number of front-end developers to create browser applications.

However, such shifts do not significantly affect the overall situation. It may seem that the market has turned upside down over the past year – but in reality, much has remained the same.